We got an email from Senate President’s office asking for our availability for a Special Session in late July/August.
The email stressed that there is no agreement on calling a Special Session or on a bill. Yet. But I doubt we’d be getting the email if there weren’t some level of agreement.
In May, right before we closed, I spoke out against extending any more funding for Rail because the City has not shown us (1) what the total construction cost will be, and (2) that they have changed their oversight and will now be able to manage those costs.
In response, another Senator rose and said Leeward people supported H-3 and the cost of traffic relief for Windward Oahu residents, so we need to support them.
In preparation for our upcoming Special Session, I did a little homework comparing Rail to H-3.
I’d welcome anyone fact-checking my homework, to make sure my math is right, and that I’ve made a fair comparison. Put your corrections in the comments section, below.
I got the numbers for H-3 from a 1997 Star Advertiser article. Just to make things simpler, I put the cost of Rail at $10 Billion – but we know it’s going to more than that. I used a government inflation calculator to compare dollars, and put the H-3 adjustment at 1992 dollars, since that was the midpoint of construction.
If anyone wants to get into a cost per mile comparison, H-3 is 16.1 miles.
|
H-3 |
Rail |
|
| Cost |
$1,300,000,000 |
$10,000,000,000 |
| Cost Adjusted for Inflation |
$2,400,000,000 |
$10,000,000,000 |
| Federal Share
Adjusted for Inflation |
90% $2,160,000,000 |
$1,500,000,000 |
| State Share
Adjusted for Inflation |
10% $24,000,000 |
$8,500,000,000 |
Thank you for voting against advancing the rail bill.
It doesn’t seem likely that the rail project can help with the traffics situation very much even we’re it to be finished to UH Manoa. I would like to know what the fee for riding the rail will be. Also will there be sufficient security on unmanned cars. Can a woman safely ride the rail at night? Have these issues been addressed yet?
The chart fails to mention that the Fed Share of rail is now only 10% to 15% @ $10B and will decrease as the rail cost continues to skyrocket.
Did anyone consider the H3 a Boondoggle like the rail? Did anyone call H3 a deliberate fraud against the people like rail has been called by many, including retired UH Law Professor Randy Roth, and myself>
I consider it to be the biggest deliberate fraud ever perpetrated upon the people of Hawaii since statehood, all the result of having an out of control, totally unaccountable DEMOCRAT MONOPOLY government.
Thanks, Sen. T ! Yes, H-3 was 90% federally funded and brought money into our economy. I think we will be lucky if rail ends up 5-10% federally funded if it goes to Ala Moana. The cost could reach multiples of that cost projected currently.
I don’t get how we are building that massive infrastructure in the federal inundation zone. Isn’t it illegal ? And how is that going to work with all the electricity coming from the ground and the elevators and escalators going to the ground. Isn’t all that an electrocution risk ? And won’t rail be shut down ? Unlike buses which would just roll through the flood waters.
The final number of your chart under the H-3 heading should be $240 million, not $24 million. Other than that, you math looks right.
Me -> http://HawaiiMathTutor.com
Thank you for this, Senator Thielen. Since H3 is shorter than the minimum operable segment (i.e., to Ala Moana), we could carry your analysis a step further by showing what H3 would have cost in today’s dollars for 20 miles. Based on your work, that would be just under $30 million.
Just a slight correction — the federal share for rail is $1.55 billion.
According to google maps, the H-3 is about 16 miles from Kaneohe Bay Drive to H-1. Extrapolating $2.4B, its cost adjusted for inflation, for 16 miles gives us $3B for 20 miles.
Since the Federal share was 90%, the state share would’ve been about $300M, less than it’ll probably cost to operate the train for a year.
Is it just a coincidence that, as Randy Roth recently reminded us, the train was previously projected to cost about $3B?
While we know the non-federal share of the construction actually comes from the residents and visitors of Oahu, would it be more accurate to call the non-federal share a City and County share, rather than a state share?
But since the funds come from the same source regardless of semantics, we need to look at the opportunity cost of rail. That is, what other issues could that money be addressing, and is rail a better use of those funds?
For example, might we be better off providing a small portion of those 10+ billion dollars to UH to develop and implement a way for students from Leeward Oahu to take courses at UH-West Oahu, LCC, or at home online rather than commute to Manoa? We all know that when Manoa is not in session, or is in summer session, we don’t need whatever traffic relief rail would provide. And that could be leveraged over the entire island, providing relief to other major arteries as well, e.g., Likelike benefiting from courses taken at WCC, and even increasing neighbor island access to classes.
And if we look beyond just completion of rail, the operating cost estimates I’ve read are about $110 million per year. Given that the initial estimate of rail construction was about $3 billion, and it’ll end up costing over $10 billion, that would suggest the cost of operating rail will be closer to $350 million per year, which is more than the rail tax is bringing in.
That means extending the GET rail tax indefinitely won’t even be enough to pay for rail operation, much less extend the rail beyond Middle Street or Aloha Tower or however far it gets before running out of money, or before the taxpaying public runs out of patience.
The argument that Leeward people supported H-3 is immaterial. This rail project is poorly designed, over-priced, will not elievate traffic woes. It will bankrupt the city and cause undue hardship on middle and low income people. End it at Middle Street or stadium and be done with it.
Short and sweet, thank you!
Correction: Culvyhouse